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Relationship Among International Trade, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: The Case of ASEAN

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Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics (TES 2022)

Part of the book series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ((SSDC,volume 429))

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Abstract

This study investigated the existence of relationship among international trade, financial development, and economic growth for ASEAN as a group and individual countries, using annual data covering the period 2010–2019 for the analysis by Bayesian regression and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methods. In this study separated financial development in two group of variables consist of financial development variables and cashless variables. For this study defines definition of cashless that mean not using money in the form of coins and notes or operating with credit and debit cards and electronic systems. Therefore, cashless variables in this study include credit card transaction value (CRC), debit card transaction value (DBC), and e-money transaction value (EM). The study results reveal that, for ASEAN as a group, there are four variables most appropriate to describe real GDP namely domestic credit to private sector (DCP), inflation (I), stock trade (ST), and export (EXP) but the cashless variables do not show effect on real GDP. For individual countries, the results reveal the sets of variables explaining real GDP to be different across countries. Cashless variables in particular affect real GDP of only some countries in the group. Based on the results, this paper offers some imperative policy recommendations.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

    Pathairat Pastpipatkul, Kunchon Wattanakul & Chutikan Khumchui

Authors
  1. Pathairat Pastpipatkul
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  2. Kunchon Wattanakul
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  3. Chutikan Khumchui
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chutikan Khumchui .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

    Songsak Sriboonchitta

  2. Department of Computer Science, University of Texas, El Paso, TX, USA

    Vladik Kreinovich

  3. Faculty of Economics, Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

    Woraphon Yamaka

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Pastpipatkul, P., Wattanakul, K., Khumchui, C. (2022). Relationship Among International Trade, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: The Case of ASEAN. In: Sriboonchitta, S., Kreinovich, V., Yamaka, W. (eds) Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics. TES 2022. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 429. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97273-8_50

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