CUBA STORMS OF CHANGE & THE FUTURE OF Photo: Iconic portrait of Che in Havana CUBA 64 THE DIPLOMATIC OBSERVER | April 1, 2016 CUBA Cuba gained the global spotlight in March of 2015, thanks to the decision of President Barack Obama to pay a visit to the island, 88 years after the last state visit by a US President. Media outlets, particularly in the US, focused mostly on what this visit means for the US. By Evren ÇELİK WILTSE, PhD Assistantprofessor of PoliticalScience, South Dakota StateUniversity @EvrenWiltse M ajority argued that with President Obama’s visit, the last relic of Cold War animosity in the Western Hemisphere was destroyed. Others criticized the President for acting recklessly on his way out of the White House. They accused him of jeopardizing the US interests by granting such “concessions” to longtime enemies, such as Iran and Cuba. Despite the army of journalists who accompanied the President to the island, in-depth observations that discussed what the visit meant for the island were harder to find. Based on two academic visits to Cuba (in November of 2013 and November 2015) this article will try to flip the table, and look at what the thawing of relations with the US could mean for Cuba and for average Cubans. Dual Economy: Currently, Cuba uses two currencies simultaneously. Tourism and THE DIPLOMATIC OBSERVER | import-export sectors use the Convertible Cuban Peso (CUC is the local acronym). Technically, 1 CUC is equalto 1 US$. However, due to the embargo, Cuban government imposes a 10-13% surcharge on US Dollar, so 100 US Dollars would get you about 87-90 CUCs. Ordinary Cubans use MonedaNacional, that is the national peso. 1 CUC would give you about 25 national pesos. This means, the convertible currency is 25 times more expensive than the national currency! Cubans receive their salaries in the cheaper peso, purchase smaller items, groceries, etc., in cheap national peso, but when they need to access to the importexport sector, they are at a vastly disadvantaged position, due to the artificially inflated rate of the convertible peso (CUC). Today, this dual currency system is probably the first economic hurdle that the Cuban government needs to tackle. When converted to dollars, Cuban doctors, professors, April 1, 2016 teachers and retirees have pitiful wages. This is why majority of cab drivers that cater to the tourists are well-educated professionals. By serving tourists, they can have access to the powerful, convertible currency-CUC. With the economic opening under Raul Castro’s leadership, Cubans are now allowed to run mini bed & breakfasts or restaurants out of their homes. This “self-employed” sector caters to the growing tourism industry, and provides the much needed hard currency to the cashdeprived Cuban families. If Cuba continues to have one overvalued and another severely undervalued currency, eventually most of its skilled labor will gravitate towards the tourism sector, where they can get access to the powerful currency. However, this would be at the expense of all other sectors, including education and health care, which then would hamper the long-term development prospects of the country. 65 CUBA generations openly complainabout delaying their marriage plans, due to the lack of affordable housing options. As Cuba begins to open up, housing is among the first problemsthat need to be addressed. With the trickling of tourist CUCs, Cubans with access to hard currency instantly start to improve their homes. They upgrade their bathrooms and try to designate at least one bedroom to rent out to tourists. However, without any deliberate efforts of regulation and conservation, these ad hoc and hap hazard upgrades could soon completely destroy the beautiful architectural backbone of the country,which had made it such a unique place in the first place. Last thing Cuba needs is rows of high-rises on Malecon (the famous sea wall along the Havana Photo: From grocery store in a suburb of Havana, showing prices of canned green beans in two currencies. harbor) or endless condos devoid of any character, much like to Florida. Housing Shortage: Anyone visiting the island would instantly notice that Cuba seems like it has been frozen in time. Most buildings look as if the last time they were touched by a paintbrush was in the 1950s, before the Revolution. However, the issue is not merely the worn out looks of facades. When you speak to Cubans, they state the chronic housing shortage across the island, particularly in Havana. Due to lack of sufficient housing, many families have multiple generations living under the same tiny roof. The government does provide housing for every Cuban citizen by law. However, this does not mean nuclear families or unmarried individuals could have their autonomous dwelling. In reality, two or three generations live together. Young 66 Phono: Scenes from a residential neighborhood of Havana. Most of the old buildings are divided into multi-family apartments, some in great need of repair. THE DIPLOMATIC OBSERVER | April 1, 2016 CUBA suffered those years have some vivid memories. They say that the food shortage was so severe that mothers would give a banana to their kids, and after the kids eat the banana, they would take the peel back, grind it and mix it with flour to fix another meal. Hence, even banana peels were not wasted. Some Cubans began raising chickens in the city, but there was very little to feed the chickens. Hence, the chickens would lay eggs without shells. Photo: Building from the Old Havana, surrounded by commercial properties and hotels. Cuban residents say this building was under renovation for years. Overgrown foliage covering the entire building verifies thelack ofconstruction activity on the scaffolding for a while. Locals mention shortage of funds, building materials and permits as factors that slow down restorations. Today, desperate times are over in Cuba. But the food shortage had propelled the Cuban regime to start nation-wide agriculture campaigns. In and around Havana, there are numerous urban farms and cooperatives that utilize the vacant lots to grow food, organically. Organic agriculture in Cuba has grown enormously in the last decades, not out of philosophical Shortage of Food: Probably among the direst impacts of the US embargo on Cuba is the resulting food shortage on the island. Historically, Cuba had a monoculture economy, and the island was highly dependent on sugar production. Even after the 1959 Revolution, this fact did not change. Instead of diversifying the Cuban economy, Soviets offered to buy the Cuban sugar at subsidized prices, and in exchange, offered the island everything else it needed. During the Cold War, Cuba imported its manufacturing and industrial needs from the Soviets and Eastern Europe. Alongside cars, trucks and heavy machinery, bulk of the island’s food supply also came from across the Atlantic. Unfortunately, the collapse of the Soviets resulted in a severe food shortage on the island during the first half of 1990s. Cubans do not remember those years fondly. People who THE DIPLOMATIC OBSERVER | April 1, 2016 Photo: Alamar organic farm cooperative near Havana. Various levels of membership provide food and income for hundreds of members. All workers are members. Here, some are playing table tennis between shifts. 67 CUBA Photo: Capitol building in Old Havana, modeled after the US Capitol in Washington DC. It has been under restoration for many years, much like other historic buildings. Famous old cars of Cuba wait for tourists in front of the Capitol. Tour for an hour in these antique cars cost about 25-30 US Dollars. concerns, but out of pure necessity. Decades long US embargo meant lack of affordable chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides on the island. Given these limitations, Cubans have become extremely effective organic farmers. Yet, despite these comprehensive campaigns, the island is still a net importer of food supplies. While the government provides monthly rations to citizens to meet their minimum caloric intake, certain items such as beef and seafood cannot be bought and sold freely in the markets. The easing of the embargo in ways to address the food problems on the island would certainly be a welcome change for the Cubans. 68 Photo: Street in Old Havana with mostly restored storefronts. Most hotels and shops are run by the Cuban government. In the coastal towns, there are joint ventures between Cuban government and Spanish and Canadian hotel chains. THE DIPLOMATIC OBSERVER | April 1, 2016 CUBA What Next? Socio-political Changes: For the longest time, anti-Cuba camp in the US argued that the embargo was warranted, because Cuba had an anti-democratic, authoritarian regime. Certainly one can always bring up the issue of imprisoned political dissidents in Cuba. However, this argument does not pass the basic test of rationality. There are plenty of non-democratic regimes, including Saudi Arabia and China that the US has rather close relations with. This memorized line and allergic attitude towards Cuba misses the incredible diversity on the island, as well as the changes it has accomplished the last decades. Moreover, it completely neglects the numerous grassroots mechanisms that facilitate citizen involvement in decision-making. At the universities, parks, in living rooms and even taxi-cabs, Cubans express a variety of opinions about THE DIPLOMATIC OBSERVER | the future direction of their country. While the younger generation seems more eager to embrace modern conveniences, the older generation cautiously reminds the gains of the revolution, particularly in terms of the amazing human capital it built. Free education, free health care and generous social services in Cuba created a relatively egalitarian, highly educated and sophisticated society. Despite all the handicaps of the US embargo, Cubans are thriving in music, literature, sports, dance and medicine. For some, these are not small gains to shed, with the promise of high speed internet and iPhones. Mainstream global media does not pay sufficient attention to the changes taking place inside the Cuban regime either. Particularly since Fidel passed the torch to Raul Castro, Cubans began to observe incremental but important changes in their day-to-day lives. They noticed the subtleand pragmatic leadership style of Raul. Unlike Fidel, Raul does not give hours long speeches. Rather than elaborate ide- April 1, 2016 ological statements, Raul emphasizes efficiency and productivity. Under his watch, property ownership and entrepreneurship gradually became acceptable in Cuba, with thousands of “self-employed” citizens running their own small businesses. Cubans also mention the incremental political opening of the island. They state that churches and clergy began operating in relatively more freedom than before. Gay rights have almost become a non-issue. Last but not the least, Raul Castro had recently implemented termlimits to office. In 2018, he will no longer run for political office, and nor will the old revolutionary guard. In short, very soon all of the political leadership in Cuba will be changing. It might be timely for the rest of the world to switch its focus from the old cars and slow internetin Cuba, to these more substantive issues. Maybe then, we could be part of a more constructive dialogue. n 69